The Identification and Explanation of Effective Driving Factors of the Development of Iranian Traditional Arts through Futures Studies

Introduction
Arts which are based on sacred knowledge supported by the idea of ​​human growth and excellence are called traditional arts. These kinds of arts generally lead into the creation of a work with intrinsic beauty and valuable cultural content. One of the most important components of traditional arts that makes them stand out is: its compatibility with traditional knowledge and knowledge of images, its harmony with the principles of coding and traditional symbolization, its compatibility with the inherent nature of the materials, and its functionality and application. Unfortunately, today, due to some deficiencies, the loss or the oblivion of many fields of traditional arts has become foregrounded. Therefore, this research is trying to use the well-known approach of future research to identify these problems and to provide appropriate solutions to achieve a possible and desirable future for the traditional arts of Iran.
Research Method
The collection of information in this research is based on scientific documents, library and field studies. Interviews were conducted with 33 experts, and active and busy working artists in the art workshops of the Traditional Arts Research Institute. The interview was undertaken through a questionnaire and the Delphi method. In addition, a purposeful and non-probability sampling method was chosen to select the interviewees until theoretical saturation was reached. The selection of participants was based on indicators including: being a professor or an art expert, having a first or second degree in art, having an academic education, and having an average of 20 years of work experience. The criteria for selecting interviewees was based on the recommended approach for sampling in qualitative studies, which includes parameters such as significance from the perspective of knowledge and expertise, well-known, theoretical knowledge, diversity, and participation motivation.
 Research Findings
In this research, driving indicators have been obtained using the parameters of trends, events, images, and actions. The results of the trend and event parameters were achieved through interviews and written library documents; also image and action parameters were obtained by the evaluation of the questionnaires. After the key drives were determined, the following scenarios were written to achieve the desired future: human beings are members of one family; each hand is a seeker, and one hand makes no sound. The results showed that 10 driving factors are effective in the scenarios that are mentioned below (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1: Drivers influencing the formation of the future research scenarios of traditional arts of Iran
The interviewees emphasized the artist’s awareness of the art's historical roots, which means sufficient knowledge about the historical background and its ups and downs. In addition, they believed that student's attraction towards and interests in learning traditional art can result from the growth of his insight and inner transformation. They also introduced the condition that a student entering the field of traditional arts must have individual capabilities such as perseverance, artistic prejudice, self-esteem, and patience in the face of difficulties. Most of the artists expressed education and learning as the bases of transference of traditional arts to the next generation. In the past, over a relatively long period, the method of training was ‘master-apprentice.’ However, with the arrival of academic and scientific centers, the duration of education was reduced to short courses. Besides, due to the lack of media coverage, exposure, and held-up courses and workshops, the level of awareness and the culture of the society regarding the learning of Iranian traditional arts has decreased. Creativity and innovation are the most basic factors in designing and implementing a great traditional work. Government support can also be helpful in the form of free or low-interest loans to help procure high-quality raw materials. The use of new methods in implementation and updated tools while preserving local and traditional motifs can lead to the growth of the production process. The formation of correct management working groups, cooperation, and participation of public and private sectors help marketing. As a result, some valuable and expensive artworks can be sold quickly in the international markets. In this way, it promotes development and entrepreneurship. The results related to the foresight emphasized the following: valuing traditional arts, combining different art disciplines, documenting works of art and artist masters, using the experiences of successful countries, and creating stable international relations.
Conclusion
This research is the first preliminary step to identify the key drives of the foresight of traditional arts in Iranian culture and art history. The results showed that among the 10 identified driving patterns, eight patterns were more effective; four patterns (awareness and culture, teaching and learning, creativity, and innovation) were influenced by internal variables. The other four cases (government support in production, marketing, sales, and entrepreneurship sectors) were influenced by external variables. These variables were directly and indirectly related to the decisions made by senior managers and subordinate officials. In addition, the formation of non-governmental organizations coordinated with government institutions in the field of traditional arts prevents rework overtime or even going astray. Perhaps, these forces that have been remained hidden from view in this area act in ineffective ways or have been in conflict with each other. This status caused disruption or stopped the process of development of traditional arts in Iran. Weakening the status of Iran's traditional arts also creates a dangerous situation in regard to other cultural and historical parts of the country. Therefore, if the attention of the upper legislative institutions is focused on these parameters, they can benefit from the opportunities by forming proper management working groups. The scenarios of this research suggest that if planned budgets are allocated to the field of traditional arts, this area can respond to the needs arising from the artistic community. In this case, the spirit of self-confidence, social well-being, a healthy economy, and prosperity of the urban, rural, and even nomadic tourism industry will be improved. This leads to an increase in the employment of young people in the field of traditional arts and tourism as well as an increase in and improvement of vitality at the level of society as well as a decrease in the possibility of criminal incidents.